Not only System Dynamics, but also painting - Mr Marius Kuslys

(Photo by Dominyka Venciute.)

Tom Hashimoto: Here, we have Mr Marius Kušlys, our studies administrator who recently completed his MSc in Financial Economics at ISM. Congratulations! So, what was your thesis about?

Marius Kušlys: My thesis aimed to model Lithuanian emigration with econometrics and System Dynamics methodology. Econometrics allowed to determine the statistical relations between emigration and various economic variables. But these relations are one-sided, while emigration has complex dynamic structure. For example, usually people emigrate because of low wages, but later decreasing labour force pushes wages up. So System Dynamics methodology allows to model these complex relations. These two research methods can complement each other, because System dynamics model can explain some relations, which is not possible to model with econometrics. For example, currently, there is no statistically significant relationship between relative average wage (ratio between average wage in destination country and Lithuania) and emigration, but this factor is the most important according to the theory. System Dynamics methodology can explain this strange situation. According to other migration theory, the increasing number of migrants abroad encourages even more people to come. And in case of Lithuanian emigration, these two factors (higher average wage abroad and migrants’ social networks) together explain Lithuanian emigration. Decreasing relative average wage makes emigration less attractive, on the other hand, increasing Lithuanians communities abroad still encourage people to emigrate. It would be much more difficult to observe this relation without system dynamics. So, in this case System Dynamics expanded the understanding of Lithuanian emigration.

TH: Intriguing. Do you plan to work on Systems Dynamics if you have an opportunity?

MK: System Dynamics is a good tool to model various economic situations. Migration is only one example. System Dynamics is applicable to model macroeconomic situations, for example monetary policy, as well as business problems, like production or inventory management. This methodology allows to incorporate many different aspects into one structure and helps to better understand the complex dynamic structures. Now I am more interested in macroeconomics, where relations are very complicated, so I hope I will work on System Dynamics.

TH: Now, I heard that you also paint. We have one of your paintings upstairs (edit: the one in the picture above - the other ones are from other artists). Have you been painting long time? Is there something you see overlapping between painting and studying financial economics?

MK: Actually this is my first painting, I did it during the 1^styear of Bachelor studies. The elective course Abstraction and realitywas my first real meeting with painting. Before taking the brush, I had to study the history of arts in order to understand the context and to be able to create something new. This is useful in two ways. First of all, it broadens the knowledge, which is useful in discussions about economics or finance. Secondly, the painting process is similar to any other creation process. In the beginning you have to study what have been done before and later you can create something new. It can be new business, a research project, a new investment strategy. That’s why painting is not so far away from Financial Economics.

TH: Well, we took the picture together here. Bit pity that the fire extinguisher is blocking the view... Anyways, best of luck and stay in touch!

MK: Thank you!